President Barack H. Obama
In my opinion, Obama’s success or failure will ride on how he addresses and resolves these issues:
Economy– Obviously, this is Obama’s primary challenge. Obama’s primary thrust to repair the economy is his proposed $825 billion stimulus plan (for my personal take on stimulus, see my Post Stimulus: A Cheap Thrill or Lasting Satisfaction? (12/21/08)). If this plan works, Obama will be hailed as a savior. Considering the mess he is inheriting, I believe that Obama will be given at least a two year free pass on improving the economy, if not his full first term.
Personally, I believe that in the end, this stimulus will help succeed in getting us out of our current recession, but at a severe cost. We will incur inflation and substantial government waste in the process. It is also likely to be much more expensive than necessary. If stimulus succeeds in mitigating the recession, Obama may be considered a hero in the short term. However, even if so, this stimulus plan threatens his long term legacy. At some point, we and/or the next generation will have to pay our lenders back for the costs of the stimulus, and Obama may end up being blamed for this enormous burden. He may also be blamed for the waste and abuse that will inevitably flow from this unprecedented expansion of government.
Terrorism– A new major terrorist incident in the U.S. would likely derail the Obama Presidency beyond repair. This would depend on the circumstances behind such an act. If Obama softens George W. Bush’s approach to anti-terrorism (i.e., the offending terrorist was released from Guantanamo under Obama’s watch or we did not waterboard the guy who would have revealed the plot in time), it will be Obama’s end. I think Obama recognizes this and the pervasive continuing threat of terrorism, and so far has shown caution in changing our anti-terrorism policies (i.e., though Guantanamo will be closed, Obama has stated that it may stay open for another year or more).
Iraq & Afghanistan– Thanks to George W. Bush, Obama has subtly shifted his campaign rhetoric regarding Iraq. By retaining Bush’s Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Obama concedes that the U.S. military surge in Iraq is working, and that he will abide by Bush’s accord with Iraq calling for a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces by December 31, 2011 (though Obama will surely accelerate this). As long as Obama does not foul up our recent progress in Iraq, he will be fine.
With Afghanistan, Bush leaves turmoil and a resurgent Taliban. Obama is 100% correct in that more must be done to win in Afghanistan, including deploying more troops there. An Obama success in Afghanistan will also bolster his anti-terror efforts.
Control Over Congress– Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid recently said: “If Obama steps over the bounds, I will tell him . . . I do not work for Barack Obama. I work with him” (1/6/09). This is an example of resistance to Obama by entrenched political players and interests. As for why, see my Post Will Congressional Democrats Impose Their Will on Obama?(1/9/09). Of course, Reid, Speaker of the House Pelosi, and the rest of them do not acknowledge Congress’ recent approval rating — a pathetic 9%! (Congressional Approval Ratings Tie Record Low, Rassmussen Reports, 8/27/08). I believe for Obama to succeed, he must figure out how to impose his will on these institutionalized Democrats, using whatever methods he can at his disposal. This last Democratic led Congress was exceedingly unpopular, and he thus owes them little. If he fails, he will end up being Congress’ doormat, potentially sharing in Congress’ lack of popular approval.
Control over His Administration – Obama has a lot of strong personalities in his Administration, with their own experiences, agendas, and programs. Hillary Clinton, Rahm Emmanuel, Joe Biden and Lawrence Summers to name a few. He better control them and make sure that they work towards enhancing his Administration and its goals, not their own.
Change in Politics — Obama must keep his campaign promise to “change politics as usual.” This should move beyond his usual rhetoric into something tangible and substantive. While he is acting very bipartisan and centrist thus far, he also has brought in the usual old political suspects into his Administration (see, e.g., my Post Barack Bill Clinton Obama, 1/6/09). His supporters, and really all of us, should expect no less from him.
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